Tillerson’s exit may presage more hawkish, unilateral U.S. foreign policy

WASHINGTON, March 15 (Xinhua) — In the biggest cabinet shakeup ever since
he assumed office in 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday ousted
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and announced he would be replaced by Mike
Pompeo, director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

The departure of Tillerson, the second Trump cabinet member to leave, may
indicate a more aggressive and unilateral U.S. foreign policy. The U.S.
media said that the biggest reason for Tillerson’s leaving was that he has
never been a “Trump’s guy,” referring to his divergences with Trump on
personality and policies.   Although his nomination as state secretary had
won the recommendations from former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
defense chief Robert Gates, Tillerson clashed with Trump over both domestic
and international issues.

After Trump made the highly controversial remarks over Charlottesville’s
racial violence that many said have racist implications, Tillerson stood up
against him by saying that “the president speaks for himself” and “we
represent the American people.”  Sources were also quoted as saying that
Trump was irritated by Tillerson’s body language during meetings, as the
latter was said to “roll his eyes or slouch” when he disagreed with the
decisions of his boss.     Widening differences on foreign policies and
international issues further escalated the tensions between the two.  Trump
told the media that he and Pompeo are “always on the same wavelength,” yet
with Tillerson, they “disagreed on things.”     “With Mike Pompeo, we have
a similar thought process,” Trump said. “I actually got on well with Rex
but it was a different mindset.”

Tillerson’s support of Washington staying in multilateral treaties and
organizations such as the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord,
and his promotion of unconditional dialogue with Pyongyang, have all made
him unpopular with the Trump administration and unable to get into the
ultimate decision-making circle. Even in his just-concluded trip to Africa,
Tillerson was still making efforts to “clean up” Trump’s derogatory
comments on African nations.In the eyes of some U.S. media outlets,
Tillerson had some “successes” in his less than 14-month term, including
the growing pressure against Pyongyang to force it to abandon the nuclear
project, and the improved ties between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.  “But he is
likely to go down as among the least successful secretaries of state in
history, and one big reason was his poor management of his relationship
with Mr. Trump,” said a New York Times report.

Tillerson’s sour ties with Trump have undercut the authority as secretary
of state.  Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader,
tweeted on Tuesday that “Whenever Secretary Tillerson’s successor goes into
meetings with foreign leaders, his credibility will be diminished as
someone who could be here today and gone tomorrow.”  Besides the cut of
budget and personnel recruitment in the State Department, veteran diplomats
also accused Tillerson of communicating insufficiently with them. Rather,
he was said to rely on his top aides, “neither of whom had much experience
or knowledge about many of the countries they discussed.”  Trump was
reportedly planning to sack Tillerson also in a bid to ensure his
diplomatic team is in place before the U.S. talks with Pyongyang and
negotiations on key trade deals.

Analysts said that Tillerson’s leaving and being replaced by Pompeo may
indicate further aggressiveness in U.S. foreign policy and the U.S. trade
stance.  Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua that
Tillerson, with a “softer” approach to international affairs than Trump,
“believed in diplomacy and wanted to engage allies in U.S. activities.”
“That ran contrary to Trump’s ‘Lone Ranger’ approach of relying upon
himself for major initiatives,” he added, noting that the White House
“likely will take a tougher stance on foreign policy because there will be
fewer impediments to Trump being Trump.”    Dan Mahaffee, senior vice
president and director of policy at the Center for the Study of the
Presidency and Congress, also told Xinhua that the sacking of Tillerson was
a sign for Trump to “double down on the idea of letting ‘Trump be Trump’
and removing a voice of moderation — even if controversial in his
departmental management.”     “The president will have greater leeway to
follow his own instincts on foreign policy and he will be less restrained
in taking actions,” West said.    He predicted that Pompeo may take a
tougher line on the talks with Pyongyang. “Trump probably will be more
impulsive and more prone to rattle cages around the world.”

Mahaffee added that the dismissal “further sidelines the State Department
and traditional diplomatic efforts as the effort is largely being driven by
Trump himself” in the U.S. further engagement with Pyongyang.   Also in
terms of the Iran nuclear deal, which Trump lambasted on Tuesday as
“terrible,” the U.S. stance may get tougher under Pompeo.   “That is
consistent with Trump’s overall perspective and geo-political concerns
regarding Iran’s role … There likely will be close attention to Iran with
the new leadership,” West said. Mahaffee also said Tillerson’s leaving may
create “a complex impact” on the U.S. trade relations with other nations.
“Tillerson had been a voice for avoiding a trade war … (the Tillerson
firing) makes it much easier to have an ‘America First’ approach in the
truest sense of what was heard on the campaign trail, as Trump is removing
a moderate, pragmatic voice from his cabinet,” said Mahaffee.

Max Boot, a senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations, also voiced concerns over the future U.S. foreign
policy.  “Does that mean that Trump is now likely to scrap the Iranian
nuclear deal at the same time that he is meeting with Kim to discuss the
denuclearization of North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea)?” he said.  “This is a schizophrenic approach that is likely to lead
to failed talks with North Korea, which could in turn lead to a renewed
push within the administration to launch Korean War II. For all his faults,
Tillerson knew that a war with a nuclear-armed state was a bad idea. Does
Pompeo?”