Namibia stands on the brink of a transformative opportunity to redefine its energy landscape. With substantial uranium reserves and an increasing need for reliable, sustainable energy, nuclear power emerges as a compelling solution to address the country’s energy needs and potentially establish Namibia as a leading energy exporter in the region.
Current State
Today, Namibia relies heavily on electricity imports, sourcing approximately 60-70% of its power from South Africa. This dependency is primarily fulfilled by Eskom, the South African state-owned electricity supplier. However, Eskom’s power system is grappling with severe challenges. Infrastructure problems and a lack of investment in new generation capacity have led to unreliable power supplies and frequent load shedding in South Africa.
Namibia’s total electricity demand has been rising steadily, driven by both population growth and industrial expansion. According to the NamPower (national electric power utility company) Annual Report 2023, country’s peak electricity demand reached 630 MW in 2022, up from 550 MW in 2018. This trend is expected to continue, with projections indicating that demand could surpass 1,243 MW by 2040. The World Bank also notes that Namibia’s electricity consumption per capita increased from 1,540 kWh in 2010 to approximately 1,800 kWh in 2022, highlighting the growing energy needs of the country.
However, Namibia’s ability to generate electricity remains limited. Currently, nation’s installed power capacity stands at around 650 MW, with a significant portion coming from hydroelectric plants such as the Ruacana Power Station, which has an installed capacity of 347 MW. Despite this, hydroelectric generation is highly susceptible to fluctuations in water availability, particularly in the context of climate change, making it an unreliable source of energy in the long term.
As demand for electricity continues to surge, Eskom’s ability to cover South African needs, let alone maintain reliable exports to Namibia is increasingly jeopardized. Eskom’s generation capacity has declined from a peak of 46,000 MW in 2010 to approximately 37,000 MW in 2022, while its Energy Availability Factor (EAF) dropped to an all-time low of 58% in 2023. If these issues persist, Namibia could face significant energy supply disruptions, which would have profound implications for its economic stability and industrial growth.
In seeking alternatives to imported electricity, Namibia might consider developing its own energy sources. The country has promising oil and gas reserves, but their development is still in the nascent stages. In 2022, major oil discoveries by TotalEnergies and Shell in the Orange Basin sparked optimism about Namibia’s potential as an oil producer. Initial estimates suggest that these discoveries could yield up to 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. However, the development of these resources will require significant investments, and commercial production is not expected to commence until at least 2028. Moreover, the volatile nature of global oil markets and the environmental concerns associated with fossil fuels pose challenges to relying solely on these resources for the state’s energy security.
Nuclear Option
Nuclear power presents a stable and reliable alternative. Nuclear power plants operate continuously, providing a stable and dependable source of electricity. This reliability is crucial for maintaining a stable grid and ensuring uninterrupted power for both households and industries. Nuclear reactors also produce electricity with negligible greenhouse gas emissions.
For a country like Namibia, which is rich in uranium, embracing nuclear power makes strategic sense. The nation is currently the world’s third-largest producer of uranium, accounting for approximately 10% of global production. “If you mine the fuel, you might as well have the engine” – leveraging local uranium reserves to fuel domestic power generation is a logical step. By doing so, the state could not only meet its own energy needs but also reduce its dependency on imports and stabilise energy prices in the long term.
Furthermore, Namibia is a nation heavily dependent on mining, with the sector contributing approximately 10% to the country’s GDP and over 50% to its total export earnings in 2022. Mining is an energy-intensive industry, requiring a reliable 24/7 grid. In 2021, the mining industry consumed approximately 2,500 GWh of electricity, accounting for nearly 40% of the total electricity consumption. As the authorities plan to expand its key energy-intensive industry, it cannot simply import or generate enough electricity for today; it needs to plan decades in advance. Unlike oil and gas, where prices can fluctuate dramatically, the cost of nuclear fuel remains relatively stable, a significant advantage for long-term energy planning. Nuclear power enables such planning and energy security, ensuring that Namibia can meet the growing energy demands of its expanding mining operations.
The nuclear power sector offers a range of solutions to meet varying energy needs. Traditional plants can generate over 1,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. These facilities are capable of supplying substantial amounts of power, suitable for meeting extensive demands. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are a newer development in nuclear technology, featuring reactors under 300 MW. These smaller reactors offer a range of advantages, including lower initial costs, shorter construction times, and the flexibility to scale as demand increases.
In the field of SMRs, Russia has established itself as a global leader. Russia’s Rosatom is at the forefront of SMR development, with its first SMR, the Akademik Lomonosov, already operational in the Arctic region, providing power to remote communities. Namibia could benefit from adopting SMR technology, aligning with global trends while addressing its unique energy needs. With Russia’s leadership and expertise, Namibia could leverage international partnerships to bring advanced nuclear technology to the country, enhancing its energy infrastructure and positioning itself as a regional leader in nuclear power.
Namibia’s substantial uranium reserves and the promise of nuclear power position the country to address its energy challenges and seize leadership in the regional energy market. Investing in nuclear technology can reduce its dependence on imports, enhance energy security, and pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous energy future. With the right investments and strategic planning, Namibia could meet its own energy needs and emerge as a key energy exporter in Southern Africa, potentially surpassing South Africa as the region’s leading energy provider.
