BAGHDAD, March 7– Another dangerous signal has emerged in the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump said that it would be “wonderful” if Iranian Kurdish opposition militants based in Iraq were to cross into Iran to launch attacks.
Media reports also said Trump had asked Kurdish groups in Iraq to assist U.S. military operations against Iran.
Analysts warn that Washington is playing a “Kurdish card” that could further destabilize the Middle East. If Kurds are drawn into the conflict, it could significantly increase the risk of regional spillover.
CONFUSION ON THE GROUND
The involvement of Kurdish forces is still uncertain. Fox News reported that Iraqi Kurds launched ground offensives in Iran, a claim corroborated by several Israeli media outlets citing ground activity by thousands of Kurdish fighters inside Iran from the Iraqi border.
However, Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government on Thursday denied claims it had sent Kurdish groups to infiltrate Iran, saying it is not involved in any campaign to escalate regional conflicts.
Although it remains unclear whether Kurdish militants have actually participated in the conflict, some U.S. media outlets have revealed that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had begun supporting Kurdish groups months before the start of the conflict, in an apparent effort to stir unrest in Iran.
According to U.S. media reports, Trump recently held separate phone conversations with leaders of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, an Iranian Kurdish opposition group based in Iraq. The talks reportedly covered U.S. military operations against Iran and potential cooperation with Kurdish groups, including possible “extensive U.S. aircover.”
Iran has responded swiftly with military action. Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said on Thursday the country’s armed forces have “destroyed” and heavily damaged a significant part of positions and facilities belonging to “separatist groups” near the western borders with Iraq.
REGIONAL POWDER KEG
The Kurdish issue has long been regarded as one of the Middle East’s most volatile flashpoints. The Kurds, numbering more than 30 million, are mainly distributed across Türkiye, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
In Iran, Kurds reportedly account for roughly 10 percent of the population and have long had frictions with the government over religious, cultural and political rights.
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, have been based in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region. From there they carried out cross-border attacks against Iranian security forces, prompting repeated missile and drone strikes by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against their bases.
According to The Times of Israel, Iranian Kurdish groups are believed to have thousands of trained fighters.
Historically, the United States has repeatedly used Kurds and ethnic tensions as leverage in its Middle East strategy. Washington has at times supported Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria to advance its own interests, only to later abandon them.
Officials in the Trump administration have privately warned of the disillusionment Kurdish forces have felt when working with the United States in the past, and their frequent complaints of feeling hung out to dry by the Americans.
WASHINGTON’S RISKY CALCULATION
Analysts say the Trump administration may be attempting to use the “Kurdish card” to pursue two strategic objectives.
First, it may seek to promote regime change in Iran. Opposition forces within Iran largely lack armed capabilities. By introducing Kurdish militants from outside the country, Washington may hope to trigger instability inside Iran and encourage anti-government forces to push for regime change.
Second, it may aim to tie down Iranian security forces. The Trump administration currently appears unwilling to deploy U.S. ground troops into Iran. Instead, it may attempt to use Kurdish fighters to conduct ground harassment operations, opening another front in addition to its airstrikes and long-range attacks in order to stretch Iran’s military resources.
However, experts believe these objectives will be difficult to achieve. Victoria Taylor, director at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program, told the Washington Post that Iranian Kurdish fighters are limited in number and unlikely to receive broader support in non-Kurdish areas, making it unlikely to trigger regime change.
Li Ruiheng, an expert at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of Peking University, told Xinhua that Kurdish forces could serve as a “disturbing factor” in the conflict but not a “decisive one.”
He noted that whether Iran’s government could be shaken would depend largely on whether large-scale internal unrest emerges in Iran and whether the United States deploys ground troops.
Nevertheless, analysts warn that if Washington pushes ahead with such a strategy, it could have serious consequences for the region.
It could further spill the conflict into Iraq. If Kurdish militants are confirmed to have been part of the fray, Iran would likely intensify strikes against related targets inside Iraq’s Kurdistan region.
A senior Iranian military official has warned Iraq’s Kurdistan region that all its facilities will be targeted in case of entry by “separatist groups” from its territory into Iran, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Friday.
Analysts believe that any attempt to draw Kurds into the conflict will further complicate the already volatile situation across the region. (Namibia Daily News / Xinhua)
