WASHINGTON, May 20 — The U.S. war against Iran poses severe electoral risks for Republicans in the lead-up to the November 2026 midterms, threatening the GOP’s control of both the House and the Senate.
Analysts and political strategists have highlighted several key ways the conflict is hurting Republican prospects, with high gas prices being a primary concern. The conflict has also driven up broader commodity prices and neutralized the cost-of-living messaging that initially helped Republicans get elected.
“High gas prices are kryptonite for American politicians,” said Christopher Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College.
The war has severely disrupted oil infrastructure and the flow of oil through the critical Strait of Hormuz, causing U.S. gas prices to spike by up to 50 percent and driving consumer confidence to historic lows.
Higher diesel and fuel costs have rapidly exacerbated food inflation, hitting working-class voters, who comprise a major chunk of President Donald Trump’s political base.
“Voters are reminded of (high gas prices) every time they fill their gas tanks. (High gas prices) also tend to be accompanied by increases in the prices of groceries and other household goods,” Galdieri told Xinhua, noting that if the trend continues, “we might start to see supposedly safe Republican seats and incumbents at risk in the fall elections.”
“The war in Iran is very unpopular, so definitively ending it — as opposed to the various ceasefires Trump has announced — would probably at least help stop the electoral bleeding for Republicans,” he added.
Midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the sitting president. Plummeting public approval of Trump’s economic handling — sinking to around 30 percent in some polls — is worrisome to Republican congressional candidates.
Independent voters — critical to maintaining competitive districts — are also becoming dissatisfied with the economy.
“Trump has not done a good job explaining his goals for the war, nor helping people understand his strategy. He has offered several different rationales, but none of them have been very convincing for the American public,” Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.
“All of this is creating big problems for his party in the upcoming elections,” West said.
Despite high gas prices and other economic woes stemming from the war, recent weeks have seen good news on the U.S. job market, with 115,000 new jobs available in April.
However, experts said that may not last.
Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Xinhua, “I doubt the economy will keep adding jobs at anything like the April rate, even if oil prices begin to fall soon. Real consumption has actually been weak.”
Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran remains highly volatile, with Trump remarking recently that the ceasefire sits on “massive life support.”
Even if the war ends tomorrow, the disruptions to the global economy will take months to resolve, according to Galdieri.aily News / (Namibia Xinhua)
