WASHINGTON, April 4 — U.S. jobs bounced back in March from the previous month, with hiring much stronger than economists had predicted, but the war in Iran threatens to thwart future employment gains.
Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during March, according to data released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), beating economists’ estimates of 59,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent versus 4.4 percent in February and expectations for 4.4 percent.
However, economists said that the gains seen in Friday’s upbeat jobs report may not last.
That’s because the report reflects surveys that were finished by March 12. The complete economic impact of the Iran conflict — which began Feb. 28 — may not be seen in employment reports for a month or even two, economists said.
Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Xinhua: “Future months are almost certain to look worse.”
“Higher prices and higher interest rates are certain to slow job growth,” Baker said.
That sentiment was reflected by other economists as well.
Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Xinhua: “The report was a pleasant surprise, but I don’t expect it to last.”
This occurs as U.S. President Donald Trump considers the possibility of ending U.S. military action without resolving the disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical passage through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows.
Some experts believe that the long-term stability of shipping through the Strait may not return to pre-conflict conditions easily, regardless of the eventual outcome.
Disruption at the Strait of Hormuz will last for a while regardless of whether the war continues or not, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Michael O’ Hanlon told Xinhua.
The damage to energy infrastructure could take several years to fully repair, with estimates ranging from three to five years. Additionally, it may take weeks to clear the backlog of ships and for global energy exports to recover.
This ongoing disruption could slow U.S. economic growth, which may, in turn, affect employment.
Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at The Conference Board Economy, Strategy and Finance Center, told CBS News: “Slower growth leads to less demand for new employees. The Iran conflict will likely exacerbate this uncertainty, as companies remain unsure of future conditions.” (Namibia Daily News/Xinhua)
