JERUSALEM, May 28– As negotiations between Washington and Tehran enter a crucial stage over a ceasefire framework, U.S. President Donald Trump has floated a broader vision — expanding the Abraham Accords to several Arab and Muslim countries.
Pakistan has publicly rejected the proposal, while none of the other countries Trump listed — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye, Egypt and Jordan — has reacted to his demand.
Analysts say the U.S. push reflects both geopolitical ambitions and political calculations, yet deep-rooted regional tensions, especially over the Palestinian issue, raise questions over whether Trump’s vision is achievable.
DIPLOMATIC BARGAIN
The so-called Abraham Accords, launched by Trump in his first term, led to normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco in 2020. The U.S. president has long expected an expansion of the accords.
Analysts noted that Trump’s latest push, through linking a possible Iran agreement with broader regional alignment around Israel, came at a time when he was facing mounting pressure at home over the war with Iran.
Harel Chorev, a Middle East expert at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center, said domestic politics remain a major consideration behind the push.
“Trump wants voters to see that he not only ended a war but created a broader regional arrangement,” Chorev told Xinhua, noting that pushing Arab states toward normalization could also help ease criticism from Republican hawks and pro-Israel groups, who believed that Trump’s potential deal with Iran might involve excessive “concessions.”
Roee Kibrik, head of research at Israeli think tank Mitvim, said Trump wants to “present himself domestically as someone who not only ended a crisis involving Iran, but also advanced Middle East peace.”
Observers argue that broadening the Abraham Accords could help Trump portray a “limited Iran deal” as a much larger diplomatic success both domestically and abroad.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said Trump appears to be trying to sell an Iran agreement as “a continuation of the Abraham Accords” — favorable to Israel, beneficial to the region and politically acceptable in Washington. But, he warned, it risks replacing “one illusion (with Iran) with another.”
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, analysts argue, an expansion of the accords would amount to a political gain. Further normalization with Arab states could also become political capital for Netanyahu amid speculation over possible early elections, Chorev said.
UNREALISTIC WISH
Despite Trump’s demand, analysts believe regional countries are unlikely to respond positively.
Saudi Arabia remains the country Trump is most eager to court for the accords. Normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv would significantly reshape regional geopolitics. Yet Saudi officials have repeatedly stated that the normalization with Israel depends on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood.
A Saudi source told Al Arabiya TV that the country’s position on the Palestinian issue remains unchanged following Trump’s remarks.
Abdulaziz Alshaabani, a researcher at Al Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said that reducing tensions with Iran may create a more favorable environment for regional diplomacy, but the two issues should not be directly linked.
“The Iran issue concerns security and strategic calculations, while the Abraham Accords involve political legitimacy, regional order and the Palestinian question,” he explained.
Qatar, another country urged by Trump to take the lead by signing the accords, also appears unlikely to join under current circumstances. As a key mediator in Gaza ceasefire efforts, Doha has long argued that engagement with Israel should contribute to resolving the Palestinian issue rather than bypassing it.
Pakistan’s position is more explicit. Islamabad has consistently maintained that it will not recognize Israel before the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Türkiye represents a different case. Although it established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, ties between the two countries have deteriorated sharply since Israel launched its large-scale military operation in Gaza.
In 2024, Türkiye announced that it had severed all ties with Israel. Analysts see little chance of a noticeable improvement in the two countries’ ties in the near future.
SHIFTING REGIONAL LANDSCAPE
The recent U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has reshaped the regional landscape and shaken the security outlook of the countries affected, making the prospects for the U.S. initiative even bleaker.
Trust in U.S. security guarantees among Gulf states, caught up in the war with Iran due to U.S. military presence on their territory, appears to be fading.
Analysts believe future Middle East security arrangements may become more diversified, with regional actors placing greater emphasis on strategic flexibility rather than alignment with a single external power.
Trump’s effort to tie an Iran deal to expanded normalization with Israel underscores Washington’s continued desire to shape the region’s security order of his own will, some analysts argue.
Challenges facing the Middle East extend far beyond diplomatic recognition or normalization, Alshaabani noted, adding that they are deeply intertwined with historical grievances, longstanding rivalries, unresolved political conflicts, as well as religious and social sensitivities.
“Simply broadening such agreements (Abraham Accords) is unlikely to address the underlying drivers of instability or resolve the region’s deeper structural tensions,” he said.
