NAIROBI, Aug. 19– East Africa’s climate agencies have forecast wetter-than-normal conditions for the remainder of 2026, signaling increased seasonal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa.
In a forecast released Tuesday evening, the Climate Prediction and Applications Center, part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and regional partners, said the atmospheric conditions are typically associated with enhanced rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa during the October-December (OND) season.
“The forecast also indicates a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin region, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania,” the agencies said.
According to the forecast, the OND season is a vital rainfall period for the equatorial and southern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, supplying up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and up to 40 percent in areas of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda.
“The timing of the rains is expected to vary across the region. Early to normal onset is more likely across much of the eastern and southern parts of the region, including Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and most parts of Tanzania,” the agencies said.
The temperature outlook forecasts above-average warmth across most of the region, with the highest probabilities concentrated in eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and much of Somalia.
Drawing on current climate trends and the developing El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, meteorologists have identified 1997 and 2023 as key historical analogue years.
During those analogue years, widespread wetter-than-normal conditions were recorded across the region throughout the OND season.
Meteorologists said that while these historical analogues offer useful context for preparedness, officials emphasize that the current OND 2026 forecast should serve as the primary guide for decision-making.
The forecast comes as governments across the region scale up preparedness measures to mitigate potential El Nino impacts, with peak weather risks anticipated between September and December. (Namibia Daily News / Xinhua)
