NAIROBI, Oct. 22– Global warming could reach 2.8 degrees Celsius within this century and continue rising thereafter if current policies continue, according to the Emissions Gap Report 2026 released Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in Nairobi.
Titled The Point of Return, the report warns that global warming could reach 2.6 degrees Celsius this century even if countries fully deliver on their current nationally determined contributions. This is worse than last year’s projection, which the report attributes to the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.
The report was launched ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference, scheduled for Nov. 9-20 in Antalya, Türkiye. It underscores the urgent need to keep global temperature increases within Paris Agreement targets and avert severe ecological disruptions, such as permafrost thaw and changes in ocean circulation.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree and year of warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius escalates the risk of catastrophic floods, heatwaves, and wildfires worldwide.
She added that it is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies.
The report also notes that global efforts toward carbon emission reduction have been insufficient and it is too soon to conclude that global emissions have peaked, with current policies and pledges remaining misaligned with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals.
However, it stresses that advances in renewables and sound climate policies have delivered significant emission reductions across countries and sectors, though a massive global scale-up is still required to avert further warming.
Between 2016 and 2025, annual greenhouse gas emissions decreased in 63 countries or regions, while power sector emissions increased in 93 countries or regions and decreased in 90.
Rapid deployment of renewables has averted significant global carbon emissions growth, with amsolar photovoltaic and wind contributing 4.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide in avoided emissions in 2025, according to the report. (Namibia Daily News / Xinhua)
