By Dr. John Steytler
Namibia’s spirits are buoyant, with a palpable sense of confidence and optimism permeating the air. While the impending departure of winter might contribute to this, there’s another more substantive reason that particularly resonates with me as an economist. This reason, grounded in economic prospects, elicits a sense of satisfaction. The focal point of this buzz is the recent surge of interest in oil exploration both within and off the coast of Namibia. Concurrently, the inception of Green Hydrogen projects augurs well, not only as a robust job creator but also as a potent source of revenue for our sparsely populated nation. Leading the charge in this Green Hydrogen initiative is Hyphen Energy, notably establishing a pivotal project in Lüderitz.
This renewed vigour is all the more significant in light of the far-reaching economic tempest unleashed by the global pandemic. Its repercussions still reverberate daily, leaving an indelible impact. The discovery of oil reserves, with their potential to yield billions of barrels, holds the transformative potential to reshape our nation. The enthusiastic interest in our capacity to generate Green Hydrogen has elicited substantial financial commitments and investment potentials in the order of billions of Euros from Europe, Japan, and various corners of the globe. This, however, does not imply an instantaneous transition into an all-encompassing oil and gas economy, where skyscrapers emerge overnight and poverty is eradicated within a blink. It necessitates a well-conceived, purposeful developmental strategy.
Indeed, the scaffolding of our National Development Plans (NDPs) and the Harambee Prosperity Plan (HPP) functions as the architectural blueprints guiding Namibia’s ascent toward its potential as a regional powerhouse. The metamorphosis of nations like Singapore, Qatar, and Dubai is often held as models. Within remarkably brief spans, Dubai and Qatar, rich in oil, have metamorphosed from barren landscapes into thriving global economic nuclei. Singapore’s Ministry, together with its agencies, engineered a transformation that converted squatters in slums into proud denizens of contemporary housing estates. It substituted shophouses with towering skyscrapers, and squalid streets were reborn as verdant gardens and world-renowned skylines. These remarkable economic overhauls demanded the collective participation and an unwavering “can-do” mindset of every citizen, showcasing exemplars of transformative leadership.
The crux of nation-building lies in daring to dream, a creed deeply ingrained in Namibia’s ethos, albeit always tempered with pragmatic realism. Our NDPs and HPP stand as tangible proof of a developmental roadmap materializing before our eyes, elevating the entire nation. With NDP 6’s recent introduction, we stand at the precipice of true transformation. Having charted a developmental trajectory for 33 years post-independence, we acknowledge that a substantial journey yet lies ahead. This is where oil and gas revenues hold the promise to significantly contribute, but the effectiveness hinges on their equitable distribution and strategic deployment, aimed at benefiting all strata of society. The key lies in earnestly uplifting the underprivileged and undereducated segments.
Delving into Namibia’s GDP reveals that approximately a quarter, equivalent to 24.7%, comprises the informal sector, constituting around US$8 billion of our GDP, according to data provided by World Economics. Realism dictates that the transition of those operating within the informal economy into the formal and tax-contributing realm will not occur abruptly. The process of integrating them into the formal economy necessitates their engagement within the oil, renewable energy, and supporting sectors. This participation will serve as a stepping stone to uplift every Namibian.
Drawing upon my credentials as an economist and as a proud Namibian, I firmly believe in our potential to foster growth and emerge as a burgeoning economy. Yet, this aspiration requires meticulous attention to the principle that “A rising tide raises all ships.” Initiating this ascent from the fringes, by uplifting the marginalized, stands as the lone avenue toward cultivating a sustainable and thriving society. Such an endeavour demands concerted exertion, collective synergy, and an unwavering commitment. Resting on the laurels of potential oil and Green Hydrogen revenue would be folly, as money alone wields no enchanting wand.
